Peak Oil News: The Most Important Thing You Don't Know About Peak Oil

Wednesday, April 20, 2005

The Most Important Thing You Don't Know About Peak Oil

deconsumption

 Steven Lagavulin

“When nothing happens for a long time, people begin to assume that nothing ever happens. But, sooner or later, something always happens.” -- Steven Lagavulin

There's an aspect to the concept of "Peak Oil" which I don't believe is sufficiently grasped by people following the subject. It's the understanding that the most dangerous aspect we face is not really the state of the resource itself--the actual "Peak" dates or depletion rates, or any of the physical realities of oil supply/demand--but rather the reaction in the oil markets upon realization that the issue no longer even important.

For instance, a few days ago I referenced the article GlobalCorp, because I felt Michael C. Ruppert did a fantastic job 'connecting the dots' of world/politcal events occurring over just the past few months. What he showed is that, regardless of whether Peak Oil has any reality to it or not, what is important now is that the powers of the world are absolutely steering the course of the planet by this star. As such, the events now destined to unfold over just the next year or so are acquiring a momentum of their own, setting us on an intractable course of global conflict and warfare. This is the reality, as I see it, of what is happening right now, regardless of when any theoretical "Peak Year" may have been reached.

Should the oil markets themselves begin to 'connect these dots', then all our lives are going to be impacted violently and immediately. The commodity traders for various interested firms live solely by anticipating conditions and events, not by debating them and verifying them. The old mantra is, you "buy the rumor, sell the news". This is the reason you'll never see "Peak Oil" covered by a respected media outlet. Because as soon as it is recognized that for all practical purposes the situation is already upon us, then a fast and viscious "resource grab" will be initiated. The price of oil in the markets will begin to rise dramatically. This will initiate a circular hedging / hording mentality in large end-users, governments, and multi-nationals. This will then have a myriad of devastating effects, but all average Joe Consumer is going to notice is that the price at the pump will experience a brief and dramatic blip upward, gas lines will form for a short time at the corner-stations, and then suddenly the corner gas-stations will go dry altogether...perhaps getting a few sporadic deliveries, but more likely simply for good. Gasoline will not be available to individual drivers, as precedence is given to heating oil, critical government and commercial uses, public transportation, transport of food and goods, etc. How the situation unfolds after that you can imagine just as well as I....

If this scenario sounds over-dramatic, keep in mind that what I'm talking about is a dawning recognition of something that many analysts have already come to realize: that the "oil grab" is in fact already on, that it's not a temporary 'bottleneck' or passing 'shock', and that the losers in this game will not survive. A global game of 'blind man's bluff' is underway, with all the players pleading ignorance of the issue for as long as possible so they can get their pieces in place...all the while anxiously watching for the first itchy-trigger finger that's going to set the whole thing off.

This is the reason I highlighted Michael Ruppert's last article. I believe that just as he is stating, the debate over "Peak Oil" itself is already over. It no longer matters whether it is proven or disproven, because there isn't time left to do either. Events in the world are revealing to us the only truth that matters: that a desperate resource war is emergent, one that will not be won by trade sanctions, blustering, or corporate bargaining. This is the only issue which should now be under scrutiny by those who strive to stay "ahead of the curve". No one questions why the U.S. is occupying the Middle-East: the Administration is there for the oil. But the true gravity of the situation is only scarcely beginning to come to light. The 'markets' have already accepted the long-term "bull market" in oil prices due to increasing demand. What they don't accept yet (or understand) is the mounting "supply" problem. When this begins to dawn on them, and it could absolutely happen as quickly as within the next few months, then seemingly overnight the world will start to come apart at the seams. Keep in mind that we're not talking about the acceptance of oil depletion among the 'general public'; the individuals comprising 'the oil markets' are people who follow the industry intimately, and who know all the latest news and rumors. They know about (quote/unquote) "Peak Oil". What they have not quite done is to connect all the dots....

The world powers are positioning themselves for war. The war is over who can take the most oil. If you don't recognize this, then I urge you to read over Ruppert's article and get a sense for the types of events and stories which form the "dots" he has been connecting. Then begin paying close attention to world news (not "politics", but real events). Begin to discern what the various strategic actions being taken by the countries of the world indicate. Perhaps I am wrong. Maybe I've misread the situation. Verify everything for yourself.

I also want to very sincerely relate that I am not saying any of this to stir up fear or anxiety in anyone. In truth, nothing about the future can be known with certainty. What I am trying to do is to communicate my own recognition that the time for action is now upon us. We can no longer debate who's right and who's wrong. We can no longer hope for what the next election might bring. We can't assume that somehow a 'gradual transition' will be effected, because it is never going to happen that way. Certainly there will be efforts among the global powers to calm the markets in various ways...perhaps some of these will ameliorate matters. But ultimately, in our own lives, just as on the world stage, whomever does not act now will soon find they have already lost the game.

So what action should be taken? What can anyone do to confront the course of events? Sadly, I don't have the answers. But I am trying to work things out. I believe that the only hope of changing things is by building a consensus among people. This needs to happen very quickly, and it will only happen when people are no longer content to just grumble about things, comfortable in the assumption that nothing is going to happen...at least, not anytime soon...and certainly not today....

Also, those who secretly long for the coming collapse will be in for a shock. The initial oil shortage, when it does come, will certainly be a serious inconvenience, but the events which proceed after that are going to humble us all to the core.

Admittedly, I don't believe that any one of us can voluntarily change events of this magnitude...but I do think we have an obligation to live as though we can.


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