Why We Need Alternatives to Oil
If you use the US Geological Survey's estimate of world oil reserves of 649 billion barrels of oil, and apply Hubbert's formulae, world oil production will peaking around 2022.
Many people think that the US Geological Survey's numbers are greatly inflated. In his book "Hubbert's Peak", Professor Kenneth S. Deffeyes of Princeton University predicts that the peak for world oil production will be reached by 2006 or 2007. Many others believe we have already reached Hubbert's peak.
There is supporting evidence that oil is, indeed, reaching its peak. In March 2004 Shell oil cut its estimated oil reserves for the second time in three months. The Saudi oil fields, which supposedly have the world's largest proven reserves of crude oil, are also showing signs of aging. Water has been seen mixed with the oil; a sure sign that the field is past its prime. Companies have had to start drilling horizontally instead of vertically which increases the cost of oil production.
Some businesses are starting to recognize the significance of 'Hubbert's Peak'. This is a screen capture of a Powerpoint slide that was part of a presentation by Scania Trucks at the 2004 Tokyo Autoshow.
Hubbert's Peak should concern us all, but there is a much more pressing problem that should be driving us to cut our dependence on foreign oil. I am talking about political instability in Saudi Arabia.