Cherished oil myths ... OPEC over-capacity!
In the last 12 months, world oil import demand increased by well over 3 million barrels/day, while consumption increased by a mere 2.6 mbd. Three years of growth of the 2004 vintage, with oil prices up to US$55/barrel, will need one new Saudi Arabia or two new Russias.
Where exactly these will come from isn't spelled out by analysts and traders itching to mark down prices when the post-winter glut happens ... but it surely won't be easy or cheap.
The myth of OPEC over-capacity is only dying slowly ... but near the end will accelerate very fast: perhaps this year, and certainly by 2007 or 2008 it will have disappeared.