Peak Oil News: Energy Transition and Final Energy Crisis

Monday, November 01, 2004

Energy Transition and Final Energy Crisis


World commercial energy demand, overall, is well over 90% based on non-renewable and environmentally damaging fossil fuels (only 8% is hydropower based, while capital intensive nuclear power depends entirely on non-renewable uranium, thorium and other minerals). The current ‘oil price crisis’ in reality reflects an emerging and permanent supply crisis for oil and gas (which currently provide about 65% of world commercial energy). Initially, this will concern ever slower net additions of world production capacity in the face of strong demand growth, and will manifest itself as continued oil price rises, and continued gas price rises. For oil, the myth of OPEC always being the ‘supplier of last resort’ has in 2004 already been discredited if not finally destroyed. Soon after the present and short-term ‘price crisis’, which can only intensify in the 2005-2008 period, and within at most 10 years, both oil supply and natural gas supply will enter into constant and terminal decline, due to physical depletion.


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