Peak Oil News: Andrew McKillop: Demographic oil demand and peak oil

Monday, September 20, 2004

Andrew McKillop: Demographic oil demand and peak oil

Forecasts by the US DoE, US EIA and the OECD’s IEA projecting world oil output at 110 or 120 Mbd by 2020 are simply based on assumptions that very large, so-far undiscovered reserves will be found, proven and developed, especially in deep offshore ‘provinces’ or regions. In addition, vast increases in production and exports from the Middle East are assumed to be sure and certain. What we can note, in these ‘official’ projections running up to 120 Mbd is that they already include a much higher long-term growth rate trend than the so-called ‘long-term trend rate’ of 1.4% annual.

The EIA and IEA forecasts give annual increases of world oil demand that extend beyond 2.75 Mbd by the 2010-2015 period, the problem being that already in 2004 we are experiencing annual growth trends of around 2.5 Mbd/year!

Taking account of depletion, these trends easily generate targets for the world oil industry to find, prove, produce or increase existing production by as much as 4.25 Mbd each year, after about 2010. In other words, "a new Saudi Arabia every 2 years."


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