An MBendi Profile: World: Oil And Gas Industry - Peak Oil: an Outlook on Crude Oil Depletion - C.J.Campbell - Revised February 2002
"This paper is about Peak Oil. It truly is a turning point for Mankind, which will affect everyone, although some more than others. Those countries, which plan and prepare, will survive better than those that do not. It is a large and difficult subject, but the essentials are clear.
In summary, these are the main points that have to be grasped:
Conventional oil - and that will be defined - provides most of the oil produced today, and is responsible for about 95% all oil that has been produced so far.
It will continue to dominate supply for a long time to come. It is what matters most.
Its discovery peaked in the 1960s. We now find one barrel for every four we consume.
Middle East share of production is set to rise. The rest of the world peaked in 1997, and is therefore in terminal decline.
Non-conventional oil delays peak only a few years, but will ameliorate the subsequent decline.
Gas, which is less depleted than oil, will likely peak around 2020.
Capacity limits were breached late in 2000, causing prices to soar leading to world recession.
The recession may be permanent because any recovery would lead to new oil demand until the limits were again breached which would lead to new price shocks re-imposing recession in a vicious circle.
World peak may prove to have been passed in 2000, if demand is curtailed by recession.
Prices may remain weak in such circumstances but since demand is not infinitely elastic they must again rise from supply constraints when essential needs are affected "