Peak Oil News: 02/01/2004 - 03/01/2004

Saturday, February 28, 2004

Jim Puplava's Perspectives: Powershift - Oil, Money & War� Part 1, March 16, 2002
"Scientists and petroleum geologists take a different view than economists who dominate much of the current energy debate. According to these scientists, production levels of oil will soon peak and then begin a long and steady decline. They are not saying we are running out of oil. What they are predicting is diminishing supply."

The Fall of Petroleum Civilization - peak oil
"'Let's look at it simply. The most important difference between North Korea and Iraq is that economically, we just had no choice in Iraq. The country swims on a sea of oil.'
- US deputy defense secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, in Singapore, May 31-June 1, 2003
'...for reasons that have a lot to do with the US government bureaucracy, we settled on the one issue that everyone could agree on: weapons of mass destruction.'
- Paul Wolfowitz, Vanity Fair magazine, May 2003 "

Friday, February 27, 2004

Oil: The illusion of plenty | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
"U.S. public, industrial and political leaders, environmentalists, and policy-makers in general do not believe that they need to be concerned with the finite supply of oil and its unfavorable (from the U.S. perspective) geographic distribution. The overwhelming majority behaves as if inexpensive oil will be readily available far into the distant future."

"One can only hope that an informed electorate and its principled representatives will realize that the facts do matter, and that nature--not military might--will soon dictate the ultimate availability of petroleum. "

The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers) The work of the Hubbert modelers has proven to be incorrect in theory, and based heavily on assumptions that the available evidence shows to be wrong. They have repeatedly misinterpreted political and economic effects as reflecting geological constraints, and misunderstood the causality underlying exploration, discovery and production.

Reason: "Annual global oil production these days is 24.5 billion barrels. At the current rate of production, oil supplies would last at least 90 years. Taking into consideration various scenarios for future energy use and based on those USGS estimates, the Energy Information Administration sees oil production peaking anywhere from 2030 to 2075. Hardly an imminent crisis. "

Thursday, February 26, 2004 - Gasoline supplies likely to shrink, prices rise

"Motorists face gasoline shortages as well as record prices the next few weeks because of the skintight U.S. refining and distribution network.

The vulnerability of that network, combined with low inventories of both gasoline and the crude oil from which it's made, have the government and energy experts increasingly nervous that some places in the USA will run out of gas temporarily.

An accident that has disrupted shipping on the Mississippi River and in the Gulf of Mexico could trigger shortages this week."

Project for the New American Century - Energetic America
This article correlates cheap energy and prosperity. (The undiscussed corollary relationship: expensive energy and recession/depression.) It presents a case for increased nuclear energy and for the building up US oil and gas infrastructure. It interestingly omits discussion of the possibility of decreasing oil production and the subsequent effects. Does this article have a political agenda?

Quote: "Let us call this political platform cheap gas, cheap oil, cheap electricity. The policy would have three basic facets: (1) Government intervention to double the share of nuclear power in electricity generation, thereby reducing pressure on supplies and prices of fossil fuels (and incidentally emissions of hydrocarbons). (2) A concerted national trade and security policy to prevent monopolistic collusion by foreign energy producers, especially in crude oil--and thus to restore more U.S. energy independence. Since collusion is not tolerated in any domestic industry, why must we tolerate collusion abroad against a vital U.S. interest, especially by oil-producing countries whose political existence depends to a large extent on U.S. military power? (3) As part of the same effort to increase U.S. production, a vast expansion of legal permissions for drilling for crude oil and natural gas on public and private lands should be enacted. Energy processing and transmission industries, such as refineries, pipelines, and distributing networks, must gain rights of way, increased freedom of pricing, and thus the access to capital needed for growth. The characteristics of an inspired regulatory regime for U.S. energy would thus be diversity, reliability, and redundancy."

Item number 2 almost sounds like a rationale for invading Iraq.

From the closing paragraph: "The national defense policy of President Bush is inspired and forward looking."

Wednesday, February 25, 2004

The Hubbert Peak for World Oil: "The Hubbert Peak for World Oil" This is the root document for consideration of peak oil.

"CLIMATE COLLAPSE: The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare" Article about a recent Pentagon research paper. This is not about peak oil, but another good reason to reduce our oil consumption.

Guardian Unlimited | Special reports | Bottom of the barrel: "Bottom of the barrel - The Guardian - The world is running out of oil - so why do politicians refuse to talk about it?"

Tuesday, February 24, 2004

Feeling the Heat: "Feeling the Heat -- The Bush administration -- infamously, ludicrously -- remains a holdout on climate change. Blithely ignoring the near-universal scientific consensus that global warming is real, dangerous, and largely the product of human activity, the White House proceeds as if it didn't even exist. "

Monday, February 23, 2004

Don't worry, be happy! I finally found a link of encouragement.
The Case Against New Fossil Fuel Exploration

OK! I found one! Here is a page where the author is making arguments that we will not run out of oil and that market forces will accomodate a shrinking supply.
Michael Williams -- Master of None: The Myth of Depletion

Here is a list of alternatives to oil, and an assessment of each.
Alternative Energy Sources - Myths and Realities

Here is a good list of links. Oil depletion: Overview, links and resources

I am pouring through the web trying to find rebuttals to a dismal forecast related to peak oil. So far, I can find nothing but crackpot sites.

Sunday, February 22, 2004

Article: Crude Awakening by Brian Braiker - A prominent physicist warns in a new book that the world is running out of oil and we’re not doing anything to stave off the coming crisis
MSNBC - Crude Awakening

Article: The World Is Running Out Of Oil, by George Monbiot
Peak Oil A Reality